I find all the unsolicited SMS atrocious and can't stomach making any donations while I keep getting all that spam. So yes, when Democrats overuse these tools, they not only see worse results, they also break the tools themselves.
There could be major differences in impact between. Presidential or large Senate campaigns and down ballot races. See Wisconsin and NC in 2024. Thoughts?
Down ballot is definitely different! In the paper I link, they estimate different effects for down ballot races. Plus, those races are much less likely to be flooded with money, so additional intervention is meaningful
This is where my thoughts immediately went to as well.
Importantly, I think campaigns in down-ballot races have the effect of actually mediating policy beliefs between voters and the candidate. When a candidate for State Representative can knock on every door with a small team of volunteers, they very quickly get feedback.
If a local party is doing its job well of "long term organizing" (or, doing its job at all), it would not only try to recruit higher quality candidates for down-ballot offices (which sometimes see few or no candidates!), their involvement in local issues could keep them more in line with the community.
This is just speculation. I have little data on whether active local party committees actually do these things (this 2013 argues yes, somewhat https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2300636). It also doesn't help that their structure is ever so slightly different between states (being from Massachusetts, the idea of a County Party is totally foreign to me).
I agree with your analysis and offer a few solutions:
1. We must - and we can - rebuild the Democratic Party from the bottom up, not the top down. That means volunteer-led organizing committees in every town and county in the USA. Many Indivisible groups are already doing this work. Why don't we simply make it a collective goal to organize every town and county?
2. As other commenters have noted, COLD (stranger) texting is counterproductive. The alternative is RELATIONAL texting - activists texting their friends. We built a free app for that called SwipeBlue - give it a try!
3. All Democratic campaigning shares one fundamental flaw: we mostly talk AT voters. So what's the alternative? I call it #AskDontTell. As any good canvasser knows, the best way to persuade a voter is to ASK them what issues they care about most - and then explain how our candidate will address those issues. So why don't we redesign all of our canvassing around this basic concept of #AskDontTell?
I am surprised that the Analyst Institute was not brought up here. For campaign tactics in democratic politics, political testing there is invaluable. No, it is not public data and you must be a member, but lots of excellent tests there to look at.
Ive been saying this for years: The biggest mistake Dems make is not bothering to extend the reach of independent radio stations like NPR into rural areas. Spend more money to update transmitters into areas that lack broadband.
Great post. I agree that much of the power building folks long for a time where they can also Maga! That is, make America Great Again by going back to a time that simply doesn't exist and will not exist ever again. Just like Trump wants 60s manufacturing jobs back with Middle class wages, we are not going back to a time of community based organizing for Democrats. At the end of the day? Follow the (consulting) money and where the incentives lie for them. Hmmmmm
I find all the unsolicited SMS atrocious and can't stomach making any donations while I keep getting all that spam. So yes, when Democrats overuse these tools, they not only see worse results, they also break the tools themselves.
I find all the unsolicited SMS atrocious and can't stomach making any donations while I keep getting all that spam. So yes, when Democrats overuse these tools, they not only see worse results, they also break the tools themselves.
I find all the unsolicited SMS atrocious and can't stomach making any donations while I keep getting all that spam. So yes, when Democrats overuse these tools, they not only see worse results, they also break the tools themselves.
There could be major differences in impact between. Presidential or large Senate campaigns and down ballot races. See Wisconsin and NC in 2024. Thoughts?
Down ballot is definitely different! In the paper I link, they estimate different effects for down ballot races. Plus, those races are much less likely to be flooded with money, so additional intervention is meaningful
Although, they're not entirely exempt from my concerns about ineffective tactics, it's just that we're less far down the diminishing returns curve
This is where my thoughts immediately went to as well.
Importantly, I think campaigns in down-ballot races have the effect of actually mediating policy beliefs between voters and the candidate. When a candidate for State Representative can knock on every door with a small team of volunteers, they very quickly get feedback.
If a local party is doing its job well of "long term organizing" (or, doing its job at all), it would not only try to recruit higher quality candidates for down-ballot offices (which sometimes see few or no candidates!), their involvement in local issues could keep them more in line with the community.
This is just speculation. I have little data on whether active local party committees actually do these things (this 2013 argues yes, somewhat https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2300636). It also doesn't help that their structure is ever so slightly different between states (being from Massachusetts, the idea of a County Party is totally foreign to me).
I agree with your analysis and offer a few solutions:
1. We must - and we can - rebuild the Democratic Party from the bottom up, not the top down. That means volunteer-led organizing committees in every town and county in the USA. Many Indivisible groups are already doing this work. Why don't we simply make it a collective goal to organize every town and county?
2. As other commenters have noted, COLD (stranger) texting is counterproductive. The alternative is RELATIONAL texting - activists texting their friends. We built a free app for that called SwipeBlue - give it a try!
3. All Democratic campaigning shares one fundamental flaw: we mostly talk AT voters. So what's the alternative? I call it #AskDontTell. As any good canvasser knows, the best way to persuade a voter is to ASK them what issues they care about most - and then explain how our candidate will address those issues. So why don't we redesign all of our canvassing around this basic concept of #AskDontTell?
I am surprised that the Analyst Institute was not brought up here. For campaign tactics in democratic politics, political testing there is invaluable. No, it is not public data and you must be a member, but lots of excellent tests there to look at.
Ive been saying this for years: The biggest mistake Dems make is not bothering to extend the reach of independent radio stations like NPR into rural areas. Spend more money to update transmitters into areas that lack broadband.
Great post. I agree that much of the power building folks long for a time where they can also Maga! That is, make America Great Again by going back to a time that simply doesn't exist and will not exist ever again. Just like Trump wants 60s manufacturing jobs back with Middle class wages, we are not going back to a time of community based organizing for Democrats. At the end of the day? Follow the (consulting) money and where the incentives lie for them. Hmmmmm
But that's the point. That's the tactician's job: how to get closer to the win _without_ the icky concessions.
I find all the unsolicited SMS atrocious and can't stomach making any donations while I keep getting all that spam. So yes, when Democrats overuse these tools, they not only see worse results, they also break the tools themselves.
I find all the unsolicited SMS atrocious and can't stomach making any donations while I keep getting all that spam. So yes, when Democrats overuse these tools, they not only see worse results, they also break the tools themselves.
Isn't one result from 2024 that Kamala moved numbers by a huge amount, like 10 points, where she was actually campaigning?